July phenol ketone industry chain product market overall weak. Upstream raw materials pure benzene overall downward trend, the port pure benzene inventory to maintain a low level, but crude oil and pure benzene foreign exchange up and down, the downstream price pressure sentiment is unabated, 4.41 percentage points of decline to take the lead, the cost of phenol and acetone support weakened. The phenol market fluctuates drastically, with prices rebounding rapidly after the plunge, the impact of supply and demand fundamentals intensified, and the situation of weak downstream demand is difficult to improve. At the same time, the downstream performance is weak, the decline varies. Bisphenol A supply and demand is always in a game state, the raw material market support is weak, in the absence of good support, bisphenol A prices are weak oscillation, the monthly average price fell 18.45%, ranked first in the phenol ketone industry chain decline.

July phenone industry chain up and down analysis

In addition, from the July phenol ketone industry chain monthly average price chain statistics, each product decline is mainly concentrated in 5%-15%; In addition, the most significant decline when the bisphenol A, the monthly average price of 18.45% lower than the ring.

Phenolic ketone industry chain main products market analysis

Pure benzene

In July, the domestic pure benzene market as a whole is a downward trend, the first half of the crude oil shock fall, pure benzene foreign exchange broad decline, the foreign market lack of support for the market, the port pure benzene inventory remains low, but the downstream pressure sentiment, East China pure benzene market down sharply; in the second half of crude oil and pure benzene foreign exchange hold firm upward, the market mentality improved, the port pure benzene inventory continues to decline, East China pure benzene market negotiation broad pull up, the market Negotiations climbed to 9600-9650 yuan/ton, but as the end of the month approached, the East China market talks quickly pulled back to 8850-8900 yuan/ton. However, fluctuations in North China are relatively limited, and the downstream just needs to purchase, the market regionalization differences exist. As of July 29, East China pure benzene market negotiation reference 8850-8900 yuan / ton, North China market mainstream offer at 8900-8950 yuan / ton, downstream large single purchase intention in 8800-8850 yuan / ton delivery.

Pure benzene market is expected to range in August, the space for fluctuation is limited. Pure benzene import cost line downward, the lack of support for the pure benzene market, while the downstream industry chain losses continue, and downstream device maintenance plan is relatively concentrated, market demand reduction. As for pure benzene, the port inventory of pure benzene remains low, but the new maintenance plan of pure benzene is limited, and Shanghai Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical and other devices will restart one after another, the supply of pure benzene market has recovered, the fundamentals of the overall short, but the international situation is changing, crude oil up and down in a disorderly manner, a wide range of fluctuations, so that the pure benzene market increased the long and short game.

Propylene

In July, the supply and demand game intensified, and propylene prices were mainly shocked down. During the month, the center of gravity of propylene prices gradually fell, the main shortcomings are as follows.

First, international crude oil maintained a wide range of oscillations, but the price center of gravity continued to fall, frequent plunges, depressing market sentiment.

The second is the weakness of the polypropylene futures market, the weak demand for polypropylene, powder / propylene spread is tiny, the overall start of work remains low, buy Hing light.

Third, the main chemical downstream trend is weak during the month, profits have shrunk significantly, and even losses, some of the main plants have shutdown and negative, dragging down propylene demand.

Fourth, propylene supply is abundant, especially in the first half of the month, propylene market maintenance is limited, and the increase of imported sources, the overall competitive pressure.

In the middle and end of the month, the propylene market rebounded slightly, and the main factors supporting the higher propylene prices were favorable supply side and support for the mindset of producers. In the middle of the month, Hebei Haiwei temporary shutdown, Dongying individual local refinery and light hydrocarbon device short stop, boosting the market mentality; the end of the month is Qilu Petrochemical overhaul, North China, East China individual PDH shutdown support. On the other hand, the industry mentality, because the current cost pressure of propylene does not reduce, so the producers are firm to support the price, as propylene gradually back after the producers are not strong will to continue to fall, and hold the market to wait and see, the downstream is a phase of low replenishment. By the close of 29th, the mainstream transaction in Shandong was 7300-7320 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan/ton from last month’s close, and the price fluctuation range in Shandong was 7150-7650 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.99%.

Major economies in Europe and the United States continue to raise interest rates, but no significant progress in curbing inflation for the time being, the signs of economic pressure is accumulating, the global economic outlook is cloudy, the economy will gradually increase the negative pressure on crude oil, crude oil prices fell back to suppress the market mentality, but propylene synchronized fall, cost pressure is not reduced. On the supply side, on the one hand, we are concerned about the release of new production capacity, Haiyi and Tianhong are expected to be put into production, and the supply will continue to increase. On the demand side, the main downstream profit performance is not good, so the overall start-up level is average, and the market is cautious to buy, the high price of propylene resistance is strong, most of the market as it is, still need to pay close attention to the polypropylene futures trend and chemical downstream profit changes. It is expected that the propylene market in August will be under pressure from supply and demand, and the general trend will be depressed before rising, and the price center of gravity will decline slightly in July, but with the support of the cost side, the downside may be relatively limited.

Phenol

July domestic phenol market fluctuations, prices plummeted after a rapid rebound, the high and low price difference of 1,725 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the market pressure on supply and demand fundamentals increased, the downstream buying gas is weak, the lack of inquiry intention to support the market negotiation prices gradually weakened. At the same time, the upstream pure benzene price shock decline, also make the market bearish sentiment increased, buying more cautious, and the downstream factory shipments are not good, raw material procurement intention is even weaker. Buy gas long-term shortage, making the supply-side pressure continues to increase, traders shipping prices fell faster to the middle of the month, the market price panic decline, East China prices once fell to 8300 yuan / ton. However, with the excessive decline in prices, phenol ketone producers severe losses, some of the device operating load down or shutdown, driven by this, the industry’s mindset slightly solid, some traders and downstream factories to low procurement, prompting a rapid rebound in prices. East China market prices rebounded to RMB 9,350-9,400/mt. Although the price rebounded quickly, but the situation of weak downstream demand did not improve, and the market negotiation price was still dominated by weak oscillation in the next month. As of July 28, the negotiated price of phenol market in East China was RMB 9,050-9,100/ton, down RMB 1,150/ton from June 30.

The domestic phenol market price range is expected to adjust in August, after a rebound from the plunge, although the downstream demand is still weak, but the phenol ketone start rate has also decreased, the supply and demand contradictions reduced. And raw materials and pure benzene and propylene cost support exists, due to serious losses in production, phenol prices continue to fall little room, but the demand side has always suppressed prices, prices are expected to remain range-bound adjustment in August.

Acetone

The acetone market stabilized after a dip in July, and by the end of the month, prices in the East China market were lower than the end of last month by a total of 450 yuan / ton to 4,850 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil plunge, the general decline in commodities, the raw material pure benzene continued to fall, the cost support collapse, the confidence of the stockholders loosened, the downstream buying cautious, waiting for low prices for procurement, in addition to the downstream products also softened, the merchants had to make concessions on shipments, the first half of acetone port inventory increased, the overall decline in the phenol and ketone industry, enterprise prices down, while the downstream demand did not improve, the purchase intention is flat, merchants had to make concessions In the second half of the port inventory declined, the businessman’s willingness to low out is not strong, with Zhejiang Petrochemical a 650,000 tons / year phenol ketone plant unexpectedly stop, businessmen expected to reduce supply, the intention of the price, due to the higher cost of business, and market prices on the low side, the market rebounded steadily, although the downstream demand is not much, but passive follow-up, the market has picked up, the transaction is mostly just demand.

Acetone market is expected to shake in August, easy to rise hard to fall, Zhejiang Petrochemical a set of phenol ketone parking, Huizhou Zhongxin phenol ketone parking, Yangzhou Shanyou phenol ketone plant plans to overhaul early, Bluestar Harbin phenol ketone plant plans to start on the 5th overhaul, affected by production losses, many companies have overhaul plans, domestic supply will be significantly reduced, boosting market sentiment, but downstream demand to enhance the difficulties, the short and long atmosphere stalemate, comprehensive To see, the acetone market is expected to continue to stabilize in August, do not rule out the possibility of a small rebound.

Bisphenol A

In July, the domestic bisphenol A market fell first and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the raw material phenol ketone further softened, the downstream epoxy resin and PC market continued downward, the demand for raw materials has always been sluggish, the bisphenol A market has been no good support, as the existing price of bisphenol A has been under the cost, so most factories to reduce the negative operation or parking, mainly to consume inventory, the overall opening to maintain near 70%, market prices fell slightly. In the middle of the month, the market pulled up slightly, Zhejiang Petrochemical twice bidding, the market slightly boosted, but the price change is not large, the downstream epoxy resin and PC market is still running relatively weak, the market volume is difficult to support the formation of a positive support for the bisphenol A market. And raw materials phenol and acetone fell significantly. Therefore, the market temporarily no good support, relying on downstream just replenishment and can not bring enough upward momentum to the market. Short-term market wait-and-see or oscillating operation. At the end of the month, the raw material level is good support for more factory maintenance, driving the raw material up, but the industry chain of epichlorohydrin and epoxy resin is not affected by it, the continuation of the downward adjustment, thus limiting the upside of bisphenol A space. In the short term, bisphenol A consolidation or weak operation. As of July 29, East China bisphenol A market reference negotiation in 11,900-12,000 yuan / ton, compared with the end of last month 13,000-13,100 yuan / ton of the negotiated price overall down 1,100 yuan / ton.

The domestic BPA market is expected to continue to shake in August. Dual raw materials phenol and acetone support is still available, coupled with the gradual alleviation of the epidemic, downstream demand is expected to recover, giving the bottom of the bisphenol A support, but the current market supply is relatively abundant, there is a certain amount of resistance to shipments of stockholders, the market is more likely to fluctuate widely, more attention to supply and demand changes.

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